Update: Tom Douglas on 5/20/2016: "The plethora of new restaurants in Seattle is a bit mind boggling.”
Tom Douglas is Seattle’s best known restauranteur, controlling an ever-growing restaurant empire. While Douglas has stated support for higher wages generally, he vociferously opposed the $15 minimum wage law, as he opposed Seattle’s paid sick days law a few years earlier.
What they said
- 3/11/2014: "I don't know that it would put us out of business, but I would say we would lose maybe a quarter of the restaurants in town, would be my guess."
- 4/3/2014: "Maybe there are too many restaurants and this will be a natural way to cull out the weakest among them. I do have some concern that we would have to shutter some of ours, but if that’s what the voters want then so be it.…This minimum wage issue could, depending on the outcome, be the most serious threat to our ability to compete so far."
- 5/1/2014: "Maybe there are too many restaurants. Maybe some of mine need to close. So be it."
What happened
Despite his doom & gloom predications about the impact of higher pay (and sick leave before that), the years since the $15 movement was sparked by the Seattle fast food strikes have been good ones for Douglas. He’s opened 5 new outlets in just the past couple years: (Assembly Hall, Home Remedy, Tanaka San, Serious Pie Pike, and Cantina Lena).
Now, a year after Seattle passed the $15 minimum wage law, Douglas’s 18th restaurant, the Carlile Room, is slated to open this summer.
All of his restaurants are in Seattle. And there are far more restaurants in the city now than there were when predicted a 25% decline.
(BTW, it's not just Tom Douglas...)
Chuck Stempler of Alphagraphics is a named plaintiff in the lawsuit by the franchise industry arguing that Seattle's $15 law is unfair to McDonald's. He told KOMO news jobs & businesses will be lost because of the law... at the same time he's hiring and his business is up 9% over last year.
In the year between the first Seattle fast food strikes and the passage of Seattle’s landmark $15 minimum wage law, business lobbyists and self-appointed experts insisted that they knew what happen if we raised the minimum wage. It was Economics 101, they’d say: higher wages would surely sink the economy. Businesses would be destroyed. Franchises would cease to exist. Prices would rise 25% or more. Open for business signs would go dark, owners would move to Texas, and Seattle would become a city of Cheesecake Factories. It hasn't quite turned out that way.
A year later, it’s time to take a look at how those predictions are holding up. Spoiler alert: the sky remains aloft.
From Howard Schultz of Starbucks to Tim Worstall of Forbes to the Seattle Times Editorial Board, all kinds of self-appointed experts repeatedly insisted that they had expert insight into the consequences of a $15 wage in Seattle. A year later, their predictions have turned out about as well as anything else from Chicken Little. The sky remains aloft.
The owner of local burger chain Dick’s Drive-In, the granddaughter of the founder, argued that a $15 wage would have serious consequences for workers and customers. Now, Dick’s said it won't raise prices after all, and they continue to provide scholarships & benefits as they have done for some time.
Seattle Times columnist Thanh Tan wrote that the best way to measure the impact of the $15 minimum wage would be to look at pho restaurants — whose owners, she argued, could not likely afford higher wages or higher prices. Four places selling pho have opened since then.
Matt Galvin, the owner of Pagliacci Pizza made a couple comments about tips and business locations which are often cited in attacks on our minimum wage law. Since the law passed, they continue to do business in Seattle, even expanding and hiring aggressively in the city.
Angela & Ethan Stowell repeatedly predicted grave consequences would fall upon Seattle restaurants if the minimum wage rose to $15/hour. Now they've announced plans to open three new restaurants in the city.
Owners of Subway stores have spoken out repeatedly against Seattle’s $15 minimum wage law, making all kinds of predictions about business closures and cost increases. They're even supporting the lawsuit to overturn Seattle's $15 law. But since the first wage increase took effect, Subways are expanding, barely raising prices, and hiring on the basis of their high wages.
Tom Douglas vociferously opposed the $15 minimum wage law, as he opposed Seattle’s paid sick days law a few years earlier. His 18th Seattle restaurant is set to open July 1st — after he opened 5 others since 2013.
Jeremy Hardy is an experienced restauranteur who contributed to the Forward Seattle effort to repeal Seattle’s $15 minimum wage law and argued repeatedly in support of a sub-minimum wage loophole for employees who receive tips. He has opened two new restaurants in Seattle since he began predicting imminent disaster.
Jerry Traunfeld said a $15 minimum wage would not be possible without a tip credit. He's now opening a second restaurant next door to his first.
Ron Oh is a Holiday Inn Express franchisee in North Seattle who joined the franchise lobby’s lawsuit to overturn Seattle’s $15 law, arguing that paying higher wages more quickly is unfair to giant national chains. He was already making good profits, and he's still hiring.
Owner Yen Lam-Steward helped organize a business coalition that opposed the wage increase and then contributed to the effort to repeal the law by referendum. Despite threats, business apparently remains strong in Seattle — they're now expanding parking.
Andrew Friedman was one of the most outspoken opponents of Seattle’s $15 minimum wage law, and helped lead the fringe Forward Seattle effort to repeal the law. His second bar is set to open any day now.